2012 Supreme Novices Hurdle Offers Little Antepost Value

January 11, 2012 Leave a comment

Despite just nine weeks to go before the Cheltenham Festival, there is still enough time for trainers to establish the credentials of the intended runners. That said, one race that is becoming increasingly difficult to fathom is the ‘curtain raiser’, the Supreme Novices Hurdle.

The current 10/1 favourite is the Jessica Harrington trained, Irish raider, Steps To Freedom, whose win in the Grade 2 Sharp Novice Hurdle back in November marked him down as possibly the one to beat. However, the second horse in that race, Prospect Wells, who finished just a ½ length home ‘blotted his copy book’ last weekend when he trailed in a well beaten 4th in the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle over 2m1f at Sandown. He finished 20 lengths adrift of the winner, Captain Conan, who was making his UK debut after joining the Nicky Henderson earlier this year and was also the same distance behind the Phillip Hobbs trained Colour Squadron who finished a short head down in second place.

On that form, both Captain Conan and Colour Squadron, who should both improve hugely for the run, should have the beating of Steps To Freedom. However, the bookmakers were clearly unimpressed by the outcome of the Tolworth and have installed Captain Conan and Colour Squadron only as 16/1 shots for the Supreme.

Second favourite in fact for the Festival’s opening race is the Dermot Weld trained and JP McManus owned Waaheb with odds of 12/1, but he has yet to be tested over hurdles having had his career to date confined to Bumpers given he has not run this season. He has won three of four Bumpers but until he is seen over hurdles then surely it would be unwise to back him antepost but stable confidence does seem to be high and it will be worth watching him.

Nicky Henderson also has a second and third ‘strings to his bow’ in the form of Darlan, a five year old who is unbeaten in one start in a ‘bumper’ last season and three over novice hurdles this term including a win at Taunton on Monday, the Seven Barrows yard also have the option to run Simonsig, second in a Grade 2 over 2m4f at Sandown Park last month. Darlan is also owned by JP McManus and this son of Milan looks to have plenty of potential but has yet to run in a graded race. He is a 12/1 chance for the race, the same price as Simonsig, who ran a great race when second behind Neptune Investment Management Hurdle favourite, Fingal Bay in that Sandown Grade 2.

Perhaps one horse to take serious note of is the Edward O’Grady trained, Cash And Go, winner last time out of the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle over 2 miles at Leopardstown over the Christmas period. That win followed two earlier wins this season in a 4YO Hurdle in November and a maiden Hurdle in October. He too is 16/1.

Galileo’s Choice, also a 16/1 shot and also trained by Dermot Weld was an eye-catching second behind the Willie Mullins trained Sous Les Cieux in the Grade 1 Royal Bond Novice hurdle at Fairyhouse at the beginning of December. However, before that he had won in a Group 3 on the flat over ten furlongs at Leopardstown. Sous Les Cieux however was unable frank that form or to further his ‘Supreme Hurdle’ prospects by finishing only third behind Cash And Go in the Future Champions Novice Hurdle. Nonetheless Galileo’s Choice is sure to improve and is one horse at least that is worth following as a potential Supreme Novice Hurdler as the build up Cheltenham gets underway in earnest.

As it stands, the 2012 Supreme Novices Hurdle doesn’t appear to offer a great deal of antepost opportunity and it’s probably best to wait until nearer the Festival starting or the day itself before deciding who to back.

Filed under Cheltenham, Cheltenham Festival Races, Cheltenham Festival Trials, Dermont Weld, Latest Racing News, Nicky Henderson, Supreme Novices Hurdle Tagged with , , , , , , ,

The ‘Dark Horses’ to look out for at the 2011 Cheltenham Festival

February 22, 2011 Leave a comment

We all have our preferences for the various races at the forthcoming Cheltenham Festival but we all know that not all of them will win. Some will go close, some will fall or run badly, some will unseat their jockey and some will be downright unlucky, but that is the nature of the sport we love and the Festival that we all regard as the best anywhere in the world. But who will be the dreaded horses that beat ours and which we simply did not consider. Let us look at half a dozen of the major races and pick out an alternative for each.

Supreme Novice Hurdle – We all seem to be going for the same horse in this one, Cue Card certainly looks to be the best horse in this race for which he is the 9/4 clear favourite to win. But as has often been pointed out this race is not ‘heaven sent’ for favourites with only four winning since 1989, however trying to fine one to beat Cue Card looks almost impossible, but one that might could be the John Quinn trained, Recession Proof, winner of the very competitive Totesport Trophy at Newbury in 18th February. The novice beat a top notch field and showed plenty of courage to win by a short head from Bothy, to claim his third straight win over hurdles.

Dark Horse: Recession Proof 12/1

Arkle Trophy Chase – The Bookmakers are struggling to separate the top three in the market for this race, with Finians Rainbow, Ghizao and Medermit all around the 5/1 mark. The truth is that there has been no novice 2 mile chaser that has really shone this season, it was expected that the Willie Mullins trained, Mikael D’Haguenet would be the one that they all had to beat but he has been nothing short of dreadful over the bigger obstacles and has drifted out to 33/1 for the race.

The interesting aspect however is that Mullins still believes very much in the seven year old and confirmed that he will be at Cheltenham and that this race would be the most likely. Mullins believes that he will improve enormously for Cheltenham where he will get much better ground than the heavy ground he has been running on over in Ireland. There is no doubting his class and might well be a huge surprise winner for his very many fans.

Dark Horse: Mikael D’Haguenet 33/1

Champion Hurdle – This still looks like one of the best races of the whole festival with Bookmakers reporting plenty of interest in the four principle protagonists, Binocular, Menorah, Hurricane Fly and Peddlers Cross. It has to be admitted that it is extremely difficult to imagine any other runner winning the race outside of these four.

However Alan King has been bullish about the chances of his Mille Chief for some time and his win the other day in the Grade 2 Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton strengthened King’s belief in the five year old who he believes is better that Katchit who won this race for the yard in 2008. King believes that with better ground at Cheltenham, Mille Chief has the fight within him to win and at around 16/1 to do so then he also has great value.

Dark Horse: Mille Chief 16/1

Champion Chase – With Master Minded and Big Zeb all the rage in the betting market, few punters are considering anything else as the likely winner with the possible exception of Somersby. It was interesting therefore to listen to Willie Mullins who confirmed his Golden Silver as a definite runner in the big feature of Day 2 at the Festival. Beaten by Big Zeb three times this season already, Mullins seemed to find the key to getting the better of the Champion Chaser in the Grade 2 Tied Cottage Chase at Punchestown last month when Golden Silver collared Big Zeb at the last before going on to win by half length. The 9 tear old has since won the Grade 2 Paddy Power.com Chase at Naas in very impressive style suggesting that he is a serious threat with Mullins believing that he can beat Big Zeb again.

Dark Horse: Golden Silver 12/1

Cheltenham Gold Cup – With nearly all the antepost money being aimed at the top four of Imperial Commander, Long Run, Denman and Kauto Star there seems little reason why any other runner should win the ‘Blue Riband’ at the Festival. However, we will remember that Imperial Commander was the ‘dark horse’ of this race last year and won with relative ease, this year of course he is the favourite.

The dark horse this year could be another Willie Mullins trained star in Kempes, who was seriously impressive when winning the Irish Hennessey Gold Cup earlier this month on very testing ground. Mullins believes that a big run can be expected in the Gold Cup particularly if the ground suits, which could be good enough against the four principles.

Dark Horse: Kempes 18/1

Filed under Arkle, Champion Hurdle, Gold Cup, Supreme Novices Hurdle

2011 Cheltenham Festival Antepost preview

December 22, 2010 Leave a comment

As punters all know, there is no such thing as a ‘nailed on certainty’, particularly not in horse racing and certainly not at the Cheltenham Festival. After all, no-one with the exception of the Nigel Twiston-Davies team expected Imperial Commander to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup because as will be remembered, the Gold Cup in 2010 was a two horse race between Kauto Star and Denman. Go Native of course was a certainty to win the Champion Hurdle in 2010 and Binocular had absolutely no chance at 9/1 on the day, after touching 999/1 on the exchanges after doubts about whether he’d even run. The same argument was applied to Poquelin in the Ryanair Chase, but we all forgot about Albertas Run, who won with champion jockey, AP McCoy on board at 14/1.

The biggest upset however came in the 2010 Supreme Novices when the hot odds on favourite, Dunguib failed his supporters by only managing third place behind 14/1 shot Menorah, who of course is now the favourite to win this season’s Champion Hurdle. There is a ‘Golden Rule’ regarding the Supreme Novice Hurdle and that is never to back the favourite as only three have won in the past 25 years or so. Which makes something of a mockery of my following Cheltenham 2011 antepost Yankee selections as they tip Cue Card, who is the favourite to win the race this season.

Yankee’s are of course accumulator bets which should they come off usually provide fantastic returns dependent of course on what has been staked and if it was a win or each way ‘yankee’. The advice generally however is to treat these bets as a bit of fun more than anything else, never stake too much and have a fair mix of odds as it is rare that four favourites will all win and even more rare if four outsiders do. At the end of each year, I like to turn my attention to placing couple of antepost Yankees on March’s festival, call it a Christmas present to myself. The reasons for this is in view of getting a little extra value on what I have seen from the form book so far in the National Hunt season.

Below is eight selections with current best price odds for consideration, they are selected without confirmation that they will take part and in some cases they might not line up in the races expected but that is the risk you take with antepost wagering. Mikael D’Haguenet for instance is down to run in two races, the Arkle Trophy and the RSA Chase and Master Minded could either go for a third Champion Chase victory or a first Ryanair Chase. Nonetheless they have been separated into two groups of four each representing two separate yankee that will give punters excellent accumulative value as well as offering horses who have genuine chances in their respective races.

Yankee #1

Supreme Novice – Cue Card 3/1

David Nicholson mares Hurdle – Quevega 5/4

Ryanair – Forpadydeplasterer 12/1

World Hurdle – Big Bucks 5/6

Yankee #2

Arkle – Mikael D’Haguenet 16/1

Champion Hurdle – Hurricane Fly 11/2

Champion Chase – Master Minded 7/4

Triumph Hurdle – Sam Winner 9/2

Filed under Cheltenham Festival Races, Supreme Novices Hurdle, World Hurdle

Cue Card excites on Hurdles Debut

October 25, 2010 Leave a comment

It seems quite fitting that my first post concerns an emerging star amongst the National Hunt ranks. A horse that I, along with many others, have eagerly awaited the reappearance since last seen storming home up the Cheltenham hill to land the Champion Bumper at the 2010 Festival. I am of course talking about Cue Card, who made his hurdles debut at Aintree over the weekend.

The transition to hurdles isn’t always as straightforward  as it would appear and I can recall several top rated bumper winners down the years who failed to realise their potential when switched to tackle obstacles. However, Cue Card showed no signs of any such problems at Aintree where he put in a faultless round of jumping upped in distance to 2 mile 4 furlongs and running out an impressive 13 length winner of this Novice Hurdle without coming off the bridle with seemingly plenty left in the tank – suggesting that the Colin Tizzard four year old should be capable of staying further.

Bookmakers reacted quickly by trimming the odds of Cue Card in the Supreme Novices Hurdle (6/1 from 10/1) and Neptune Novices Hurdle (6/1 from 12/1), for which he was already favourite in both for the 2011 Cheltenham Festival but an antepost bet at this stage is restricted by his versatility in trip. The Supreme Novices is over two miles whilst the Neptune is 2m 5f and judging by his effort at Aintree I would tend to think he will relish every yard of the longer trip but it may be worthwhile holding out to see how he performs next time out.

It’s still very early in the season and whilst it’s difficult not to get excited by what appears to be such a talented prospect in Cue Card, a lot can change between now and March. Plenty of punters got there fingers burnt with a similar vein of optimism surrounding Dunguib, winner of the previous year’s Champion Bumper and emphatic winner when switch to hurdles in the build up to last season’s festival only to be beaten when odds on in the Supreme.

However, the 2010 Champion Bumper form has worked out really well for Cue Card with 5th, 6th and 7th in the race, Megastar, Dare Me and Bishopsfurze all winning since and should the highly rated Paul Nicholls trained Al Ferof, second at Cheltenham, justify his promise when making his much anticipated debut over hurdles then Cue Card really could look the real deal, although quotes of 33/1 to for the Champion Hurdle do appear a little premature for 2011.

Filed under Aintree, Champion Hurdle, Cheltenham Festival Races, Cheltenham Festival Trials, Colin Tizzard, Neptune Novices Hurdle, Supreme Novices Hurdle Tagged with , , , , , , ,

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